Time for another ranking check for our trading idea Glu Mobile, but also time for a reality check. Glu Mobile’s share price is down some 55% over the last 3-months period, following weak comments by Facebook-gaming company Zynga and a weak Q4 2012 guidance by Glu Mobile itself.
While we were negatively surprised by Glu Mobile’s Q4 outlook as well, we believe that the currenty slaughtering of the share seems mad. The company’s Q4 guidance was partly due the postponement of 5 games which were supposed to be released under Q4 but are now under review. Most likely the majority (if not all) of these titles will be released in Q1 2013, with improved features and monetization possibilities. Also, judging from our regular ranking checks, Glu games are selling well so far in Q4. As of today, Glu Mobile has no less than 11 top 10 grossing ranks and 132 top 100 grossing ranks.
Naturally, it is a pitty that Q4 is most likely a hiccup on Glu’s path to profitability, but it is hardly the end of it. Destroying more than 50% of the company’s value because of one weaker quarter seems highly exaggerated in our opinion. Especially since our ranking checks suggest that we should not completely count out Q4 after all.
As usual, We are screening the app markets of Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, UK and USA.
Number of Glu Mobile games among the top grossing charts for iOS: