Time to open the books for our current trading idea Glu Mobile. The mobile gaming company is due to report its Q3 2012 numbers tomorrow, November 1. We think it is a great opportunity to jump onboard.
Already on October 9, Glu Mobile released a statement reiterating its outlook for Q3 for revenue in a range of $20.25 million to $21.25 million, on a non-GAAP basis, and an adjusted Ebitda loss of $3.1 million to $4 million, but probably a little closer to the smaller end of that loss estimate. Consensus estimates are at revenues of $21.3 million and an Ebitda loss of $3 million.
Glu also said it had no titles in the quarter that met the success of “prior breakout hits,” thus limiting upside for the quarter. CEO Niccolo de Masi said it was too soon to update the company’s Q4 view given the lack of upside last quarter in the game titles: ” We did not have any breakout title launches in Q3 and are still evaluating our expectations of their lifetime performance. In the next several weeks, we expect to launch Contract Killer 2 and Death Dome, which titles will be important to Q4 revenue performance. Consequently, we have yet to form an updated view on fourth quarter 2012 results. However, we will manage the business to be Adjusted EBITDA break-even or better for Q4.” Glu said that it expects to have further commentary on Q4′s outlook when it formally reports results for Q3.
So we know that Q3 did not include any “breakout hits” for Glu Mobile. Nevertheless, the company has most likely reached its prior guidance for the quarter. What’s more interesting, we believe, is that Q4 has started with a bang for Glu Mobile, judging from the recent download statistics. We expect very positive comments around this from management tomorrow, which should be beneficial for the share price.
Here is an updated ranking check for Glu Mobile: