Archive | August, 2011

US mobile gaming revenues expected to double in 2011

19 Aug

A report by SNL Kagan said it expects U.S. mobile game revenues to top $1.53 billion this year, which is nearly double the revenues made in 2010. At that amount, the mobile industry will make up about 7.7% of the $20 billion U.S. games market. Looking further out, SNL Kagan anticipates mobile game revenues to top $7.81 billion in the next decade, i.e. growing more than 5 times from 2011 levels.

The author, John Fletcher, identified this year’s fourth quarter as a key turning point as consumers download new apps after receiving a smartphone as a gift during the holiday season. During the final three months of the year, he expects U.S. mobile game publishers to generate more than $439.4 million, up 62 percent from $271.7 million in the prior-year period. He said the revenue growth is being driven by the free-to-play model, which enables publishers to make more than if they were charging 99 cents. While only a few customers actually make in-app purchases, they easily outspend the number of people willing to spend 99 cents on a game they don’t know if they will enjoy.

As the freemium model prevails, he expects newcomers, including Zynga, will make a dent in the space by the fourth quarter. However, Fletcher anticipates incumbent companies, like Electronic Arts and Gameloft, will continue to dominate.

For our favourite pick G5 Entertainment this is good news. During 2010, North America stood for some 35% of their total  iOS sales. However, the company is actively pushing its marketing in North America and Asia and at a recent investor presentation, CEO Suglobov highlighted that the iOS revenues from North America are running now closer to 40% of the total.

Have a nice weekend and hold on to your G5 shares!

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New M&A action in the gaming sector

16 Aug

US based, Digital Chocolate has agreed to acquire Sandlot Games, known for developing titles such as Cake Mania, Super Granny, Tradewinds and Westward, across online, PC, mobile phones and consoles. Sandlot Games is the fourth recent acquisition in the area, following PopCap by EA, Sucker Punch by Sony’s PlayStation and Griptonite Games by Glu Mobile. Sandlot’s founder and CEO Dan Bernstein will become VP of Digital Chocolate and manage its studios in St. Petersburg, Russia, and in Bothell, USA. Terms were not disclosed.

M&A activity in the gaming space remains high and recent turmoil on the financial markets has reduced the price tags of several interesting targets. Mobile gaming company G5 Entertainment is one of the obvious targets, with a great and growing portfolio of iOS and Android games. Despite stellar revenue and earnings growth, the market is currently trading the stock at only 11.7x 2011 EPS. This is clearly unsustainable and given the non-cycle nature of this business, even a renewed downturn (which is at this point only hypothetical anyways…) will not affect earnings growth beyond 2012 too much. This is a structural growth story and the bigger gaming companies know this. That’s why they continue to acquire business even in these shaky times.

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G5 Entertainment: strong Q2 2011 result

15 Aug

G5 Entertainment reported this morning a strong Q2 2011 result, in-line with its previous guidance. Revenues of SEK 19.1m were up 133% y-o-y, while EBIT of 7.8m was up 161% y-o-y. The implied EBIT margin of 41% continuous to be impressive and its 400 b.p. above the level reported in Q2 2010.

May and June 2011 became record months for G5 in terms of revenue, only surpassed by January 2011. This positive trend has continued into Q3, as July set a new record and August seems to be on track to surpass July revenues.

For the first 9-months of 2011, management is now guiding for an EPS of SEK 1.26 and is keeping its keeping its FY 2011 guidance of SEK 1.90.  This seems rather conservative on first sight as its implies quarterly EPS of SEK 0.37 for Q3 and SEK 0.64 for Q4.

 In 2010, the quarterly EPS figures were as follows: Q1 SEK 0.17, Q2 SEK 0.20, Q3 SEK 0.18 and Q4 SEK 0.45

In 2011, the quarterly EPS figures are as follows: Q1 SEK 0.44, Q2 SEK 0.45, Q3 guidance SEK 0.37 and Q4 guidance SEK 0.64

So this would mean that y-o-y EPS growth would develop as follows: Q1 +158%, Q2 +125%, Q3 guidance +106% and Q4 guidance +42%.

Even if we account for the 8% dilution following the Traction deal it appears to be very conservative to assume that Q4 EPS will grow by only 42% given the trend we have seen so far in 2011 and the tremendous success G5 games’ experience in Q3 so far. Also, there are many more games to come towards the end of the year. Another quick sanity check can be made by annualizing H1 2011 EPS of 0.89 which gives as a FY 2011 EPS of 1.78, i.e. 6% below the 1.90 guidance. So earnings are supposed to grow by only 6% in the second half of 2011 compared to the first half? Seems strange to me. In 2010, H2 EPS grew by 70% compared to H1…

The other comments in the report are all positive and in-line with what I have written about previously, including recent developments in the Android market, successes for Special Enquiry Detail in early Q3 on iOS and the upcoming launch of Virtual City 2.

Conclusion: The G5 story is on track and things are developing very favourably. Management decided to stay conservative and did not hike its guidance for 2011 today. Nor do they comment on the potential for 2012. Naturally, this would have been greatly appreciated already now but it seems reasonable to wait a few more weeks and management has indicated that we will get such comments in early October, in connection with the mid-quarter update. I am absolutely certain that this will be a major trigger for the share price. When I am writing this, the G5 share is down some 7% and trading at SEK 22.90. Given Friday’s spike of +14% I can understand the reaction since many investors probably bought in anticipation of an increase of the guidance. But as usual, investing in stocks requires patience and short-term trading is a different thing than investing! Every fundamental investor in G5 should be happy today.

 I am long G5 Entertainment and you should be too!

www.nordicinvestor.de

G5 Entertainment: CEO comments on US office and business model

11 Aug

I came across an interview with G5 Entertainment CEO Vlad Suglobov, published by a Swedish stock market blogger on http://www.aktieexperterna.se/forum/200?page=7. I take the liberty to re-publish it here, due to its information value. Keep up the good work!

Q:”Aktieexperterna”

A: Vlad Suglobov, CEO G5 Entertainment

Q: The investment in US. For me it could seem a bit risky/costly to spend money on an office in the US with the main purpose of over viewing the marketing in the country. Although I have notices that you have had a little bit harder to reach the top spots with your newest games over there, but can’t the main marketing be handled over the internet from Russia or Ukraine?. Can you give some more detailed information about this investment, what is the pupose of the office in detail?

A: There is no investment. “US office” may sound expensive but in fact it’s just one person sitting in a very small office (which costs less than comparable size office in Moscow), and overseeing our marketing materials and marketing activities in USA. The value this person brings is tremendous for the cost, because:

1.1 While we have people speaking English in Russian and UKraine, nothing comes close to native speaking person who knows the mentality, the popular culture, the native language and lingo and any kind of slang that Americans are used to. Also, this person contributes this way not only to US but also to all English-speaking territories.

1.2 While we did not have many releases, in face myself personally was responsible for final approvals of all marketing texts and images, and recently this became my 2nd workday. I would spend 8 hours on being CEO and another 4 to 6 hours on being marketing director. This became unrealistic and impossible to continue, so we had to get a Director of Marketing. Unfortunately, there are no people in Russia or Ukraine with the experience of marketing mobile games to English-speaking and US audiences, because Russia doesn’t have significant numbers of global companies in the field. While San Francisco is home to many such companies and finding such person there was easy.

 1.3 Moscow salaries are not far from US salaries when it comes to marketing people. While engineers get high salaries in San Francisco and Silicon Valley in general, because of all high tech companies there, marketing people with international experience tend to have bloated salaries in Russian and Ukraine because there aren’t many of them. So it’s great price/quality to hire engineers out of Russia and Ukraine while hiring marketing executives out of US, when selling games to US and EU. Also, USD is now weak compared to Euro, which makes US even more attractive.

1.4 Apple and Google, and the people at Apple and Google who decide on whether or not a particular game gets promoted in US, are based near San Francisco. Needless to say, seeing someone local and being able to call them on the local phone during normal work hours is a great benefit to communication, and speedy communication is important when we release one game a week. It makes a lot of difference.

1.5 Main press outlets like IGN and other media companies covering mobile games are located in USA. I hope this clarifies regarding US office. There may be ups and downs with our efforts in promoting our games in USA. But competition is tough there, and what’s important is that we continue doing it, and continue to be persistent and establish ourselves as a local presence. With the current cost structure for the US office, and with our current revenues, we already cover our expenses on the Marketing Director (and a cheap office for her to sit in). So I’m not sure which risks you are referring to when you say it’s risky. We’re not making any investments. There are no risks. We simply hired a person in USA because it was the best thing we could do price/quality-wise. ¨

Q: How do you think the 2 new board members, with their experience, will help G5?

A: I think having Peter (Traction, my note) is good in order to raise profile and bring more attention from specialist investor media in Sweden. We have already heard positive comments from some investment banks on extending the board – this was considered a good thing. And having Jeffrey is good to create a frame of reference in USA. Jeffrey is very connected in the video game industry and he works with us for several years. He can benefit G5 by providing valuable insights on how US video game industry works, provide some introductions, and create this sort of bridge between so distant Sweden and Russia where g5 is located and Silicon Valley, where the behemoths of this sector are: Apple, Google, Facebook, Zynga, etc. And if G5 wants to grow big, we’re going to do more work on that side of the ocean.

Q: When I look at the top grossing lists on the app store i can see that a lot of the top selling games have in app purchases. Why don’t you make more games with in-app purchases like Virtual city or mystery of the crystal portal where you pay for hints? Do you have any plans of doing so?

A: All I can say on this is follow our news.

Q: How do you think a financial crisis would affect G5. What affects have you seen during the last crisisis?

A: I think G5 is well-prepared for the financial crisis, if there’s going to be one. We are in a much better situation now than in 2008, when we were dependent to a great extent on the orders from the publishers, and these were affected by the crisis. Right now we don’t have long-term debt, so any increases in the cost of borrowing will not affect us. We control the pricing and we own all revenue from the games we publish. The prices for our games are rather low compared to other forms of entertainment and I can only see more people switching from more expensive forms of entertainment to G5 games. We have a profitable business model so we don’t depend on the availability of the external financing, and our sales are global, not depending entirely on any specific part of the world which may get in trouble. There can be some short-term effects on the stock market of course, but I think G5 has great fundamentals to withstand those.

G5 Entertainment: expanding its Android game portfolio

11 Aug

G5 Entertainment released its weekly games update this morning and two out of three of the games mentioned are for the Android market.

As of today, “Supermarket Management” is available on the Android Market and on 18 August, “The Mystery of the Crystal Portal” is following suit. The third announcement of the week is the highly anticipated second edition of Virtual City. The game is called “Virtual City Playground” and will be released for the iPad on 25 August. It is developed and published by G5 Entertainment itself. The original “Virtual City” was a big success for both iPhone and iPad and topped the download charts around the world, thereby contributing to the G5-brand among gamers. I think we can have very high hopes for the second version as well!

What’s particularly interesting with the new releases for Android is the recent uptick in downloads of G5-games on the Android market.  On 30 June, G5 entered the Android market with 5 game releases and added another one on 4 August, called “Paranormal Agency”. It was this latest game that drew attention to G5′s overall Android portfolio when it was featured in Android Markets’ “Trending Apps” category last weekend. Since then downloads of all G5 Android games have spiked, which is a proof that the cross-selling approach seems to work rather well. Additional games for Android should lead to even more attention for G5′s portfolio and while the company has not yet commented on the convertion rate for Android (games are offered for free and need to be “unlocked” for the full versions later on), it is nevertheless very encouraging to follow the recent trends.

Check out an overview of G5′s Android games’ performance on: http://www.g5info.se/spelstatistik_android.htm

Despite the current turmoil in the market, I am comfortable with my long-position in G5 Entertainment. I think we can look forward to the Q2 report on Monday and I hope to get an update on: a) FY 2011 guidance, b) number of games releases following Traction deal, c) details on G5′s performance on Android Market including convertion rates etc

Everything else would be a bonus in my opinion but if we are lucky, management will already give a glimpse on the earnings potential for 2012!

www.nordicinvestor.de

Amazon upbeat on its Appstore for Android development

3 Aug

Neat interview with Amazon Appstore for Android director, Aaron Rubenson, on venturebeat.com:

VentureBeat: How is the Appstore doing?

Aaron Rubenson: It’s going well, very well. To recap, we launched the store on the 22nd of March so it’s been live a little over three months now and the reaction from our customers has been very strong. In the first quarter earnings release, which was just a couple of weeks after we launched, we announced that we already sold millions of apps at that point and it has continued to grow from there. When we launched we had just under 4,000 apps and we’re now up to north of 14,000. So we have good traction in terms of growing the selection.

VB: What does the mix of apps look like?

AR: Games is our biggest category both from a selection standpoint and from a sales standpoint. I think our sales are more or less tracking with what the industry sees. Games are a very important part of it. We do the “free app of day” promotion, where we give away a paid app for free. You can find it in our mobile client. There are lot’s of positive comments from customers. So it’s a very active segment of our customer base. Plants vs Zombies is the best-performing game.

VB: Does the promotion of an app as a free app really help the app later on when the promotion ends and then you start selling it for money again?

AR: Exactly. When developers are trying to get their product discovered, the promotion as a free app of the day is a very powerful marketing vehicle. Then once that core base of customers has a product installed, they tell their friends about it. That spurs more downloads. It rises in popularity in our store. That makes it more popular as people are scrolling through the bestseller list and notice it there. So it starts the virtuous cycle from a marketing perspective. And then increasingly as developers are using various forms of monetization post-purchase, such as advertising or in-app purchasing technology, there are all sorts of downstream monetization opportunities as well once you have that initial base.

VB: Is there a lot of cross promotion across Amazon?

AR: There is. I’d say one of the reasons we were so interested in this market segment in general is that we sell a lot of stuff beyond apps. We sell 85 categories of physical and digital goods. And so we know a lot about our customers. And so if, for example, we have a great cookbook app, we might put a placement in our kitchen store. That directs customers who we know might be interested in that kind of app to our Appstore. We do cross promotional site placements as you mentioned. We also have good ability to send targeted email to customers. If you shop at Amazon you have probably received our targeted email as follow-ups to purchases. We could send an email to everybody who’s purchased pots and pans in the last six months. We can say we have these fantastic recipe apps we think you might be interested in. And those types of proactive marketing activities are proving to be very successful.

VB: The International Game Developers Association was pretty concerned about what was going with app pricing. They felt the developers were losing control of app pricing under the contracts they signed with Amazon. What is your explanation?

AR: When we looked at how we thought we could add value in this market segment, what we realized is that we are equal parts technology company and retailer. And the fact that we are a retailer at our core makes us a little bit different because we know about marketing and merchandising and proactive promotion activities like we were just discussing. And so when we launched the store we did it in a way that’s a bit different, where we are actually the seller of the apps. And as part of that, that means that we are ultimately setting the sales price that the customers will pay for that app. And the reason we made that decision was that it gives us the broadest amount of flexibility in terms of marketing and merchandising and proactive promotional activities we were talking about, which we think is a real value for the customers. So it is different. There is no question about that. But we think that it is also proving to be a good decision because it’s working, it’s resonating with our customers.

VB: So you are having sales success as a result of this?

AR: That’s right. The customers are reacting positively to the store. The developers have been happy with the sales they get through stores. So the model seems to be working.

VB: It seemed like it was turning into a developer rights issue. The developers want to be able to weigh in on whatever the prices are. What do you think about that?

AR: We certainly recognize that it’s a different model. But we decided that it was the one that made the most sense for us so that we could do the best job of marketing developers’ products effectively. And I think if you look at the site today, what you find is that the vast majority of the products are simply priced at list price. And then you’ll also find some really exciting promotional offers for our customers. And in most cases we’re working very carefully with the developers to have marketing going on both sides. We market the apps and they do too, so that we can have as effective an awareness campaign as we can together.

VB: How is that similar or different from the other app stores out there like Getjar?

AR: We are different in a number of ways. Most of the other app stores just sell apps. And so their ability to do some of this cross-marketing and targeted promotional activities that we talked about is nonexistent. And then from a business model standpoint, they took the other path where the developers are the sellers of the products.

VB: Do you think you have the fastest growing app store?

AR: Hard to say. I wouldn’t speculate. We’re happy with the growth. I will say that Android in general is on a phenomenal trajectory, and so I think it seems like everybody is growing well, which is great for the ecosystem.

VB: Android has lagged behind the iPhone in monetization. Has that changed in some way?

AR: I think the new monetization models that are emerging are really interesting. And we hear from our developers that early experimentation with those is proving effective. In-app advertising has been around for a while, but I think that technology has evolved to the point where that seems to be effective. And then with in-app purchase technology that’s now available on Android, it seems like there is strong interest in that from a developer’s perspective. That’s a positive sign. In many ways, it turns a disadvantage into a positive thing. Many customers are predisposed to download free apps. That means the installed base of an app can become very large. Then you can offer this large base of users some things that they can directly purchase from inside the game. Or you can monetize the users through ads. The other thing I’d add is that part of the reason we think our store is valuable is that we do a good job of putting the right apps in front of the right customers. We know what the customers are interested in. And what we found across Amazon in general is that when you do that, customers are in fact going to pay for products once they see the right ones and know that they are good products.

Another thing that we haven’t talked about is a feature we have in our online store called Test Drive. I don’t know if you’ve seen that. Test Drive lets customers actually try the apps in the browser before they buy them. It’s a pretty cool piece of technology. When a customer clicks on the Test Drive button we launch an actual instance of the app on a server that’s running on Amazon Web Services and the customer can then interact with the app in real-time in the browser and use their keyboard or their mouse just like you would use a finger on the phone to interact with the app. It’s kind of a time trial if you will. And the reason we did that was to help customers understand what’s so great about a particular app such that they would be hopefully interested to buy it if it’s right for them and tell their friends about it. So just again the overall message is we believe that if you help customers find the right products, they will be willing to purchase a paid product in addition to a free one.

VB: And does the Amazon Web Services business help you in some way?

AR: Yeah. Amazon Web Services has been around for a while serving developers. Recently they launched SDKs (software development kits) for both iOS and for Android that make it very easy for mobile app developers in particular to tie their apps directly into the web services. And so we have web services SDKs that help developers develop. The Appstore provides distribution, so we’re working together to make their lives better.

VB: We hear these rumors of you guys doing different things like making your own games.

AR: So here is where my answers have to be very boring unfortunately. We haven’t announced anything and I can’t speculate before we have, unfortunately. There is another advantage we can talk about. If you take a look at some of the product pages for Plants vs Zombies, you’ll find that we have a staff of people who are creating really rich HTML content for these apps. We create text, use multiple images, and create visually appealing layouts. It’s much more robust than you typically find in some other stores. That’s part of the core value that Amazon provides for all its products. But I think particularly in apps, where again we’re trying to explain to customers why it might be worthwhile to actually spend money for an app, then that information is valuable. Because the more they understand what it does and how fun it can be, the more likely they are to take the plunge and spend a few dollars.

VB: What is leading to app discovery? How do you find high-quality games that you wouldn’t otherwise know about?

AR: The way we like to operate is we build a whole account management team whose sole mission in life is to work with developers to get their products in front of the right customers. And so what’s proving to be most effective is when we work with developers, even in advance of the launch. We can understand who their target customers are and come up with a great cooperative marketing campaign so that on day one when the product launches, we have great product pages, we have placements across Amazon.com and we can send targeted emails. We can use our social media channel — Facebook and Twitter — not only for the Appstore but potentially for Amazon’s other mobile properties, if the targeting is right. If we have a nice coordinated message and developers are reinforcing that message by directing customers into our Appstore from their other apps or from their website or using their email lists — then it is that type of activity that is most successful in making customers aware of an app.

And then again, once that virtuous cycle is started, it tends to feed on itself. In addition, we have a lot of automated technologies that do a good job of making products get discovered. And if you’ve shopped on Amazon, you may have seen the suggestions, “customers who bought this item also bought that item.” We have those technologies live at our Appstore, both on the mobile version and online store. And the technology algorithms extend beyond apps. If you are buying baseball jerseys on Amazon, you might see baseball apps show up in your personalized recommendations because we’re aware of your interests. And customers with similar interests buy those baseball apps and they get recommended to you. So that’s another way we can help discovery.

VB: Discovery still seems to be the biggest problem of the age of hundreds of thousands of apps. You can get lost very easily. I wonder if there is more helping coming down the road. Maybe better artificial intelligence will help?

AR: You’re right. It’s definitely a challenge for the industry overall. There are lots of apps out there. Now our selection is slightly more curated. I think we talked before about how we’re testing all the apps before we publish them in the store. We want to have as broad of a selection as possible but we also want to ensure that customers have a good experience with whatever they buy through us. So we pass the apps to testers to make sure they work well. We are on the lookout for malware and we make sure they conform with our content guidelines. We want the customers to have a good experience. And that’s one of the reasons why we have 14,000 apps instead of 200,000 apps. It’s growing quickly, but we do have more of a curated selection. Our DNA is as a retailer. We have a huge number of products in our store. All our systems are designed to help you as an individual customer find the products that are right for you. Apps are a similar challenge to our other product categories and that’s why we were interested in launching in this space.

VB: You have a lot of people dedicated to this. What are most of them doing?

AR: We have a number of teams. We have various technical teams that have actually built the online store and mobile client. From a business perspective, we have teams that are dedicated to working with developers to help them get launched in the store, help them make sure their products look great in the store and also work with them collaboratively from our marketing perspective as we were talking about. We have a marketing team that’s using all of the tools Amazon has to drive customers into the store online and the mobile channel. We have a content team that is responsible for the testing of the products. So we have standard retail organization that is tuned for apps.

VB: We had our recent GamesBeat 2011 conference and a number of speakers brought up concerns about the amount of piracy that happens on Android phones, particularly in some of the emerging territories. Any observations about that?

AR: We serve customers in the U.S. and so we haven’t seen the challenges with the other countries that you mentioned. Our goal is obviously to sell as many products legitimately as we can. We give developers the option to apply digital rights management technology at their discretion to apps that move through our store as a safety mechanism. And we have not frankly heard that it’s a significant problem from our developers

Glu Mobile acquires two game developers

3 Aug

In connection with its Q2 2011 report, Glu Mobile announced yesterday that it has acquired two leading game developers: Griptonite Games and Blammo Games. The result itself was a notch better than consensus expectations as the company reported a second-quarter loss of $1.75 million, or 3 cents a share, compared with a loss of $3.22 million, or 10 cents a share, for the year-earlier period. Revenue was $17.68 million, up from $15.95 million. Adjusted loss was 1 cent a share. Analysts had expected the company to report a loss of 4 cents a share, on revenue of $16.45 million, according to a consensus survey by FactSet Research. I continue to like the underlying story of Glu Mobile but as long as the company is loss making I will not make any investment in the name. Especially not since I get the same exposure with my preferred pick G5 Entertainment, which is due to release its Q2 report on 15 August. Current management guidance is for an 2011 EPS of 1.90 but management has already indicated that this guidance will be upgraded.

  Griptonite Games is a leading developer of high-quality titles for handheld platforms. Based in Kirkland, WA, Griptonite employs approximately 200 people and has shipped dozens of titles on Xbox 360, Wii, DS, PSP, and iPhone platforms. Under the terms of the agreement, Glu has acquired Griptonite Games which includes its studio teams in Washington state, and will acquire integrated art and development support from Griptonite’s Hyderabad, India facility. Net cash on Griptonite’s balance sheet will support the transitional forward investment to new freemium product launches beginning in Q2 2012. The consideration for the Griptonite acquisition consists of Glu issuing a total of 6,106,015 shares of common stock.

 Blammo Games recently joined Glu’s gPartners program to develop two titles – the first of which will be launching in early 2012. Based in Toronto, Canada, Blammo is run by Christopher Locke who was one of the creators as well as producer of several freemium top ten grossing iOS titles including Smurf’s Village and Zombie Café. Under the terms of the agreement, Glu will issue the Blammo shareholders 1,000,000 shares of common stock as initial consideration and will potentially issue up to 3,312,937 additional shares of common stock if Blammo meets certain net revenue milestones during the earnout periods that stretch though March 2015.

www.nordicinvestor.de